The one-child policy, a part of the family planning policy, was a population planning policy of China. It was introduced between 1978 and 1980 and began to be formally phased out in 2015. The policy allowed many exceptions and ethnic minorities were exempt. In 2007, 36% of China’s population was subject to a strict one-child restriction, with an additional 53% being allowed to have a second child if the first child was a girl. Provincial governments imposed fines for violations, and the local and national governments created commissions to raise awareness and carry out registration and inspection work.
- Major Premise (general statement): China’s one-child policy allowed for exceptions.
- Minor Premise1 (specific statement): Ethnic minorities were exempt
- Minor Premise2 (specific statement): 53% of population was allowed to have a second child if the first child was a girl.
- Conclusion: The majority of Chinese were not affected by the one-child policy.
From The Atlantic, : Six Consequences of One-Child Policy Reform (End of One-Child Policy)
China is finally dropping its one-child policy for around one-third of the population: couples that are urban and Han Chinese in which one parent is an only child. (Couples that are rural, non-Han, or where both parents were only children were already allowed to have two kids.) The policy will remain in force only for urban Han parents who were both the product of two-child homes—a fairly small proportion.
This 30-year-old social engineering experiment played an important, if contentious, role in China’s re-emergence as an economic powerhouse. Here’s what the change might mean:
- A Larger Labor Force—Eventually The labor force is estimated to begin declining by as much as 10 million a year starting in 2025. Any population rebound will take decades.
- More Consumer Spending—At Least on Baby Formula Allowing more couples to have more children now should boost consumption almost right away for goods like infant formula, food and clothing, and education services.
- Happier People Perhaps the most important effect of changing the one-child policy is that it could end human-rights abuses like forced abortions and signal that the leadership is serious about reforms.
- A Smaller Gender Gap Removing the one-child policy won’t change the cultural preferences, but may ease the pressure on parents if their first child is a girl.
- A Healthier Housing Market—in Time The policy’s end should eventually forestall a housing market collapse trend—but it won’t come fully into effect for decades.
- Increased Strain on Natural Resources The extra 9.5 million people born each year will need food, water, and housing. That’s already a problem: per capita arable land in China is half of the global average and 40 percent of that is considered “degraded,” meaning it is less economical or uneconomical to farm.
- Major Premise (general statement): Ending the one child policy impacts the future China greatly.
- Minor Premise1 (specific statement): Happier Chinese because forced abortions will end.
- Minor Premise2 (specific statement): Happier Chinese because less pressure on parents if their first child is a girl.
- Conclusion: The end of the one child policy will make Chinese happier.
From Washington Times, November 2, 2015 : Birth of a catastrophe, China faces up to the consequences of its one couple, one child rule.
Introduced in 1979, this attempt to control population has prevented the birth of up to 400 million persons in the world’s most populous country. A couple who has the forbidden second child must pay a fine of 40,000 yuan, the equivalent of $6,338.37, almost two-thirds of the average annual Chinese wage. The government is dealing with the threat of rising social costs and a shrinking work force. The upcoming census is expected to reveal a ratio of 122 boys born for every 100 girls, replacing the usual 106 boys for 100 girls. It’s not clear whether the new regulations will cover so-called “illegal children,” those born in excess of one child per couple. Untangling this Chinese puzzle would be a monumental task even if the 50 million bureaucrats — a bureaucrat for every 27 Chinese — wanted to untangle it.
- Major Premise (general statement): The goal of the Chinese one child policy has failed.
- Minor Premise1 (specific statement): The population goal was not met.
- Minor Premise2 (specific statement): The population now has illegal children.
- Minor Premise3 (specific statement): The population now has too many boys, not enough girls.
- Conclusion: Bureaucratic population control doesn’t work.